Concordia Lutheran
Boys - Girls
2019 - 2020 - 2021
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State Rank #13
New Haven Semi-State Rank #3
West Noble Regional Rank #2
Northrop Sectional Rank #2
Most Likely Finish 11th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 4.8%
Top 10 at State Finals 38.1%
Advance to State Finals 100.0%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Huntington Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/22 8/29 9/5 9/12 9/19 9/26 10/3 10/10 10/17 10/24 10/31
Team Rating 304 342 318 299 310 349 324 352 348 374 296 310
Team Adjusted Rating 342 318 299 310 320 324 322 348 333 296 310
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Huntington Invitational Taylor University Invitational Marion Invitational Bruin Invitational West Noble Invitational New Haven Invitational Summit Athletic Conference Northrop Sectional West Noble Regional New Haven Semi-State State Finals
80  Lexi Panning 9 19:38 20:25 20:21 19:33 20:04 19:59 19:36 20:25 20:19 19:43 19:30
120  Abby Mays 12 19:55 19:45 19:36 19:43 19:42 19:57 19:51 19:59 19:49 20:15 19:57 20:12
122  Keller Whicker 10 19:56 20:42 20:13 20:12 19:56 19:43 20:33 19:28 22:42 20:36 19:42 20:07
141  Madelyn Borchelt 11 20:03 20:00 19:57 19:55 20:05 20:16 20:01 20:15 19:58 20:00
247  Callie Hoover 12 20:30 20:38 20:48 20:32 20:37 20:40 21:06 20:32 20:12 20:20 20:31 20:21
253  Rhaya Kaschinske 12 20:30 20:10 20:14 20:48 20:24 20:42 20:15 20:42 20:42 20:15 20:49 20:22
716  Gretchen Witmer 12 21:53 21:42 21:26 21:53 22:08 21:28 21:49 21:51 22:07 22:17
782  Faye Kropf 10 22:03 21:49 21:31 21:35 21:17 22:06 22:36 23:20
929  Emily Clark 9 22:26 23:03 23:27 22:25 21:56 21:46 22:28 22:32
1,183  Katelyn Nix 12 22:57 22:35 25:12 22:36 22:40 22:15 28:35




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 100% 12.4 348 0.2 1.1 3.5 4.9 6.1 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.7 8.0 7.4 6.9 5.7 5.0 4.7 3.8 3.5 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.3 0.5
Semi-State 100% 3.8 147 3.5 41.5 33.6 13.0 6.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.2 69 0.0 85.6 13.4 1.1
Sectionals 100% 2.2 60 0.0 84.3 14.7 1.0 0.0



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lexi Panning 100% 74.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.4%
Abby Mays 100% 97.5 32.6%
Keller Whicker 100% 99.4 0.0 29.4%
Madelyn Borchelt 100% 109.4 16.7%
Callie Hoover 100% 146.5 0.5%
Rhaya Kaschinske 100% 147.3 0.6%
Gretchen Witmer 100% 200.7 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lexi Panning 100% 19.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.5 4.5 5.9 6.3 6.4 6.3 5.9 5.9 5.5 5.4 4.8 4.3 4.0 4.0 100.0%
Abby Mays 100% 29.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.7 3.7 4.3 3.8 100.0%
Keller Whicker 100% 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.1 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.4 3.8 100.0%
Madelyn Borchelt 100% 35.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.5 99.8%
Callie Hoover 100% 58.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 92.8%
Rhaya Kaschinske 100% 58.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 92.3%
Gretchen Witmer 100% 136.3 0.0%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lexi Panning 100% 7.4 0.1 0.4 1.4 23.1 18.4 16.4 11.9 8.8 6.2 4.5 3.2 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Abby Mays 100% 11.5 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.1 7.6 9.9 9.4 10.8 10.2 9.7 7.9 7.0 5.5 4.3 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 100.0%
Keller Whicker 100% 11.8 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.9 6.6 8.5 10.3 10.0 10.1 10.1 8.6 7.2 5.8 4.5 3.4 2.4 1.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 100.0%
Madelyn Borchelt 100% 14.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.1 4.7 6.0 7.4 8.4 8.9 9.9 9.2 8.8 7.1 5.4 4.4 3.4 2.9 2.4 1.7 1.1 1.1 100.0%
Callie Hoover 100% 23.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.9 4.1 5.1 5.7 6.1 6.1 5.5 6.0 5.7 6.0 100.0%
Rhaya Kaschinske 100% 23.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 2.7 3.7 4.8 5.5 5.9 6.5 6.4 6.0 6.3 6.1 100.0%
Gretchen Witmer 100% 54.4 93.9%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Lexi Panning 6.9 0.1 0.4 1.5 27.4 23.4 21.2 12.0 6.2 3.7 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Abby Mays 9.7 0.0 0.1 2.9 7.3 12.6 15.8 15.7 12.8 10.7 7.1 4.9 3.6 2.2 1.3 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Keller Whicker 10.1 0.0 0.1 2.4 6.2 10.9 14.8 14.7 14.3 10.6 8.0 5.6 3.9 2.6 1.9 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
Madelyn Borchelt 11.7 0.0 0.7 2.5 4.5 8.2 11.6 13.3 13.1 11.3 9.0 7.0 5.1 3.9 2.7 2.1 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3
Callie Hoover 19.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.2 4.7 5.7 6.6 7.1 7.8 7.5 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.6 5.9 4.7
Rhaya Kaschinske 19.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.8 4.0 5.9 6.1 7.2 7.6 7.5 7.2 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.3 5.2
Gretchen Witmer 38.7 0.0